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Bayesin

Budget Simulator

$23.8M in play

At today's split, a dollar moved into Affiliate returns 1.65× while the same dollar in Display returns 0.45×. That gap is the case for reallocating.

Revenue is read off each channel's fitted response curve rather than a flat ROAS assumption, so returns fall as spend rises. When every channel shows the same marginal return, the budget is optimally split.

Modeled RevenueModeled
$88.8M0.0%vs current split
Allocated Budget
$23.8Mmatches current spend
Lift
0.0%same model, new split
Modeled ROASModeled
3.73×

Channel allocation

Each slider is bounded at three times current spend. Marginal return updates live — when two channels show the same marginal return, the budget is optimally split.

ChannelSpendAllocatedChangeModeled revenueMarginal
Paid Search$7.8M0%$45.1M1.26×
Paid Social$6.2M0%$20.1M1.42×
Display$3.3M0%$9.6M0.45×
Video$4.2M0%$7M1.03×
Affiliate$2.3M0%$7M1.65×

Share of budget

Each channel's share of the allocated total, against where it started.

Gained shareHeld or lost
Paid Search33%was 33%
Paid Social26%was 26%
Display14%was 14%
Video17%was 17%
Affiliate10%was 10%

NoteCurves are fitted per channel with no cross-channel interaction or carryover. Treat output as directional planning input, not a committed budget.