Marketing Mix

Sample dataset

The next dollar earns most in Affiliate at 3.06× marginal return, and least in Display at 0.83×. 2 of 5 channels are past 75% saturation.

Modeled

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Media ContributionModeled: $88.8Mincremental revenue
Modelled Spend: $23.8Mobserved
Baseline ShareModeled: 54.0%not paid-driven
Saturated: 2/5past 75%

Marginal return on next dollar

Return on the next dollar of spend, after diminishing returns. This ordering, not average ROAS, is what should drive reallocation.

View as table

Marginal return by channel
Channel	Marginal ROAS	Average ROAS	Saturation
Affiliate	3.06×	3.02×	45%
Paid Social	2.64×	3.23×	56%
Paid Search	2.33×	5.77×	78%
Video	1.91×	1.69×	39%
Display	0.83×	2.89×	84%

Channel decomposition

Credible intervals are the 80% posterior range on average ROAS. A wide interval means the model has seen too little variation in that channel's spend to be confident.

Channel	Spend	Contribution	ROAS	80% interval	Saturation
Affiliate	$2.3M	$7M	3.02×	2.56× – 3.48×	45%
Paid Social	$6.2M	$20.1M	3.23×	2.71× – 3.76×	56%
Paid Search	$7.8M	$45.1M	5.77×	4.90× – 6.64×	78%
Video	$4.2M	$7M	1.69×	1.43× – 1.95×	39%
Display	$3.3M	$9.6M	2.89×	2.53× – 3.25×	84%